BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clay-colored Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Clay-colored Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.99–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.99–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.952.5
20261.70.962.5
20271.80.972.5
20281.80.982.5
20291.80.992.6

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EdwardsMINNESOTA182024
KnappMINNESOTA172024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA162024
New LondonMINNESOTA152024
AshbyMINNESOTA102021
GlenwoodMINNESOTA92019
St StephenMINNESOTA82016
HudsonWISCONSIN82024
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN72024
HolwayWISCONSIN51989
GrimmsWISCONSIN52021
PrincetonMINNESOTA42024
Le CenterMINNESOTA42023
CascoWISCONSIN42024
Omro 2WISCONSIN42023
EvergreenMINNESOTA32024
CadottWISCONSIN32024
StratfordWISCONSIN32024
SaxevilleWISCONSIN32024
ManitowocWISCONSIN32021
EdenWISCONSIN32021
MerideanWISCONSIN32024
Buena VistaWISCONSIN32023
FestinaIOWA22019
OlaMICHIGAN21995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.