BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clay-colored Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Clay-colored Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 151% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.90–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+151%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.90–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 151% by 2030 — from 0.68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.90–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.872.5
20271.70.882.5
20281.70.882.5
20291.70.892.5
20301.70.902.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EdwardsMINNESOTA182024
New LondonMINNESOTA152024
HudsonWISCONSIN142025
AshbyMINNESOTA102021
GlenwoodMINNESOTA92019
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN72024
KnappMINNESOTA52025
Brook ParkMINNESOTA52025
HolwayWISCONSIN51989
GrimmsWISCONSIN52021
St StephenMINNESOTA42025
Le CenterMINNESOTA42023
MerrillWISCONSIN42025
EvergreenMINNESOTA32025
LoraineWISCONSIN32025
SaxevilleWISCONSIN32024
ManitowocWISCONSIN32021
CascoWISCONSIN32025
EdenWISCONSIN32021
Omro 2WISCONSIN32025
MerideanWISCONSIN32025
Buena VistaWISCONSIN32023
FestinaIOWA22019
OlaMICHIGAN22025
PrincetonMINNESOTA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.