BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clay-colored Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Clay-colored Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clay-colored Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Clay-colored Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 141% by 2030 — from 0.63 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.47–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+141%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 141% by 2030 — from 0.63 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.47–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.422.5
20271.50.432.5
20281.50.442.5
20291.50.462.5
20301.50.472.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA342015
CircleMONTANA262018
Soda WellWYOMING191981
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA162024
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA162025
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA132025
LindsayMONTANA112024
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA102019
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA92025
BillWYOMING82001
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA62004
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA62022
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA52014
Pine TreeWYOMING51995
PowdervilleMONTANA42014
Winifred 2MONTANA42024
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA42023
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA41993
PineyWYOMING41990
HampshireWYOMING42001
JordanMONTANA32023
ForsythMONTANA32019
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA32025
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA32023
BrusettMONTANA22012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.