BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clay-colored Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Clay-colored Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clay-colored Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Clay-colored Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.54–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clay-colored Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.54–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.482.5
20261.50.502.5
20271.50.512.6
20281.50.532.6
20291.60.542.6

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Clay-colored Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA342015
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA272018
CircleMONTANA262018
Soda WellWYOMING191981
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA182024
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA162024
LindsayMONTANA112024
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA102019
BillWYOMING82001
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA62004
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA62022
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA62024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA52024
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA52024
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA52014
Pine TreeWYOMING51995
RoyMONTANA42024
PowdervilleMONTANA42014
Winifred 2MONTANA42024
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA42023
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA41993
PineyWYOMING41990
HampshireWYOMING42001
JordanMONTANA32023
ForsythMONTANA32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.