BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee

PasserellidaeForest birdsPipilo erythrophthalmus

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2,228RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Eastern Towhee

The Eastern Towhee (Pipilo erythrophthalmus) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 2,228 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 39 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Passerellidae · Forest birds

Notable Eastern Towhee TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.97–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.97–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.97–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.51.35.7
20263.41.25.6
20273.31.15.5
20283.21.05.4
20293.20.975.4

Where the Eastern Towhee Is Detected

BBS routes recording Eastern Towhee, sized by most recent count.

Eastern Towhee Population Trend by State

Eastern Towhee population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-47%1968108
Arkansas+9%196955
Connecticut-89%196820
Delaware-84%196817
Florida-50%1968120
Georgia-47%1968111
Illinois+34%1968101
Indiana+66%196864
Iowa+103%196930
Kansas+472%197034
Kentucky-60%196864
Louisiana+36%196985
Maine-97%196836
Maryland-43%196876
Massachusetts-81%196832
Michigan-1%196896
Minnesota+171%196948
Mississippi-17%196874
Missouri-23%196993
Montanainsufficient datan/a1
Nebraska-34%197027
New Hampshire-97%196822
New Jersey-74%196844
New York-67%1968124
North Carolina-55%1968112
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a4
Ohio+54%196887
Oklahoma+302%199810
Pennsylvania-9%1968136
Rhode Island-62%19687
South Carolina-60%196851
South Dakotainsufficient datan/a3
Tennessee-16%196855
Texas-26%19987
Vermont-91%196824
Virginia-62%196888
West Virginia+2%196863
Wisconsin-7%196896
Wyominginsufficient datan/a3

Eastern Towhee Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Eastern Towhee population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes-39%197323
Boreal Hardwood Transition-51%196899
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-52%196884
Atlantic Northern Forest-94%1968105
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-37%197226
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+60%1968255
Prairie Hardwood Transition+41%1968151
Central Hardwoods-53%1968163
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas13×196973
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-18%196867
Southeastern Coastal Plain-40%1968345
Appalachian Mountains-13%1968405
Piedmont-47%1968170
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-78%1968164
Peninsular Florida-66%196875
Gulf Coastal Prairie-69%196913

Eastern Towhee Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 63% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.