BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Tennessee has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Tennessee is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 7.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Tennessee is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 7.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202510.07.512
20269.97.512
20279.97.512
20289.97.512
20299.97.512

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt3320241966
Big Sandy3220241966
Mansfield3120241966
Lovell2820191966
Corryton Rd2720191966
Bradyville2520211966
Fish Springs2520231966
Indian Mound2319981966
Soddy2119811967
Tullahoma1820151967
Mt Olive1820241966
Collinwood1720241966
Peytonsville1720241966
Brownsville1620241966
Jones Gap1620191982
Silver Pt1520241966
Tibbs1420241966
Climer1320041967
Moscow1220241966
Pond Creek1220241966
Glen1220241966
Red Bank1219781966
White House1120191966
Trenton1020231966
Petersburg1020191966

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.