BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Oklahoma has surged: up 318% on the route-weighted index since 1998.

+318%Since 1998TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.01–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.01–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.30
20270.150.000.30
20280.160.010.31
20290.160.010.31
20300.160.010.31

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bethel520252008
Goodwater220212016
Eagle City219711971
Mill Creek120042004
Mt. Herman120222018
Hee Mountain120242011
Peoria119681968
Welch119681968
Pocola119981998
Colcord120162016

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.