BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Delaware

All statesForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Delaware has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has collapsed in Delaware: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Delaware is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±166.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±166.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Delaware is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±166.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.005.7
20270.000.005.7
20280.000.005.7
20290.000.005.7
20300.000.005.7

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blackbird620251994
Pepperbox620161998
Milton 2520252017
Lowes Xrds419911966
Harrington320251966
Frankford320121966
Holleyville320041966
Millsboro320252017
Bethany Bch219891966
Mt Pleasant120181966
Wilmington120141966
Frederica120251966
Dover119861966
Milton119991966
Holleyville 2120182006
Georgetown120221992
Pepperbox 2120252017

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutfloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.