BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in New York has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in New York: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.003.8
20260.130.003.7
20270.010.003.6
20280.000.003.6
20290.000.003.6

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones Beach2720131966
Philadelphia2020241980
Fowler1719681966
Oxford1519761967
Branchport1520241967
Ogdensburg1320241980
Phillips Cr1220241967
Swain 21220242011
Duanesburg1120241966
Kasoag1020241966
Manorville920241966
Dryden920241966
Cattaraugus920191967
Watertown820121967
Warwick719741968
Cayuga720241969
Nashville720181967
Somers619771970
Rifton619861967
E Newark620241967
Swain620071967
Cicero Ctr620241966
S Berne 2620242014
Orleans520241967
Canadice L520241968

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.