BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Eastern Towhee in New York has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in New York: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.004.0
20270.240.003.9
20280.130.003.8
20290.020.003.7
20300.000.003.6

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones Beach2720131966
Phillips Cr1720251967
Fowler1719681966
Ogdensburg1720251980
Oxford1519761967
Branchport1520241967
Philadelphia1320251980
Dryden1220251966
Manorville920241966
Cattaraugus920191967
Watertown820121967
Warwick719741968
Duanesburg720251966
Nashville720181967
Somers619771970
Rifton619861967
Swain620071967
Kasoag620251966
Degrasse620251980
Swain 2620252011
Rhinebeck520251966
Oriskany Fls520251967
Bedford419961967
Austerlitz420251966
Ballston Lk419951967

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.