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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Florida has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in Florida: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 19 (95% range 9.6–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.6–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 19 (95% range 9.6–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026211131
2027211130
2028201030
20292010.030
2030199.629

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broad Branch10320251967
Alturas9819861971
Ocala9620251987
Lovedale8320111987
Citrus7120252010
Blountstown6620251966
Gardner6519991987
Chassahowitz6020251996
New Hope5920112009
Babcock Rnch5919901988
Seminole Hls5720001967
Betts5620251987
Nixon5219861985
Hilliard4820251966
Goethe4320252010
Blackwater4220251987
Bloxham4020251987
Olustee4020251992
Salvista3919791967
Alligator Pt3720251987
Seminole Hills 23720222002
Miller Xrds3620191987
Callahan3620241987
Hildreth 23620252010
Broward3219731966

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.