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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Florida has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in Florida: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Florida is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 10–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Florida is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 10–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211131
2026211131
2027211131
2028201030
2029201030

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ocala11620241987
Alturas9819861971
Broad Branch9120241967
Lovedale8320111987
Betts7320241987
Gardner6519991987
New Hope5920112009
Babcock Rnch5919901988
Chassahowitz5920241996
Seminole Hls5720001967
Citrus5720242010
Nixon5219861985
Bloxham5120221987
Goethe4920242010
Alligator Pt4420241987
Salvista3919791967
Seminole Hills 23720222002
Miller Xrds3620191987
Callahan3620241987
Olustee3620221992
Blackwater3420241987
Hixtown Swmp3420241987
Broward3219731966
Eglin A.F.B.3220111995
Oak Grove3020161967

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.