BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Missouri has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Missouri is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 3.0–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Missouri is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 3.0–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.53.06.0
20274.53.06.0
20284.53.06.0
20294.53.06.0
20304.53.06.0

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ironton1419801972
Graniteville1320251982
Sticklervill1020251970
Gildehouse1019891978
Emden1020242017
Danville920251967
Barks820251994
Bland820251995
House Springs820252017
Akers720251967
Mcfall720251994
Union719991990
Cp Girardeau620251967
Rensselaer620251975
Huntsville620251967
Whitewater620251996
Kahoka2620242002
Woodlandville620252013
Gerald620252013
Moselle620252000
Pulaski520251974
Hamilton519851972
Marshfield520231994
Frankford520251985
Graydon420251967

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.