BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Missouri has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Missouri is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 3.2–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Missouri is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 3.2–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.73.26.1
20264.63.26.1
20274.63.26.1
20284.63.26.1
20294.63.26.1

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ironton1419801972
Whitewater1120241996
Gildehouse1019891978
Emden1020242017
Huntsville920241967
Gerald920242013
Palace820242013
Danville720241967
Graniteville720241982
Watson720242002
Union719991990
Sweden620241968
Centertown620221974
New Point620241994
Kahoka2620242002
House Springs620242017
Richland620212014
Hamilton519851972
Sticklervill520241970
Trenton520241967
Marshfield520231994
Kearney520241995
Frankford520241985
New Hampton520242014
Moselle520242000

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.