BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Eastern Towhee in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 6.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 6.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026126.717
2027116.516
2028116.416
2029116.216
2030116.016

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brevard7320251968
Green Swamp4320062002
Mashoes4119821971
Washington3920252001
Shallotte3619911966
Arapahoe3319951966
Mooresville3320011966
Cullowhee3020251974
Todd2920251995
N. Mills Riv2819951994
Spring Hope2320252002
California2120131972
Sturgills2120252001
Broad Creek2120251993
Craven Gap2019751969
Marshall2020251990
French Broad River2020252001
Raeford2020251990
Hamlet1920251995
Sheffield1920251991
Milltail Cr1820251992
Ernul1820092001
Chowan River1820062002
Cherryville1719681966
Bethel1720252002

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.