BirdAnalyst
Species · Rhode Island · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Rhode Island

All statesForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Rhode Island has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in Rhode IslandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in Rhode Island: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Rhode Island

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Rhode Island is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 0.00–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Rhode Island is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 0.00–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.40.0025
20279.10.0025
20288.80.0024
20298.60.0024
20308.30.0024

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Rhode Island

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Rhode Island.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Block Island3020251987
Shannock2520251973
Pulaski1919921991
Casimir Pulaski Sf1120182016
Wallum Lake420251973
Quonset Pt120251966
Sachuest Pt119891966

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.