BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in South Carolina has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in South Carolina: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in South Carolina is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 10.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 6.3–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025147.121
2026146.921
2027146.721
2028136.520
2029136.320

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandhills5120241994
Salem Xrd4020191982
Little Mtn3719881966
Carvers Bay3420121998
Boykin Ml Pd3219681966
Kingstree3120102010
Nixville2920211998
Mount Pisgah2820211998
Anderson2820181977
Pendleton2719761966
Bennettsville2520171998
Owings2220041992
Whitmire2220242010
Walterboro2020171970
Battlecreek1720241999
Cauthens Xrd1720211982
Ward1620212017
Joanna1620231999
New Holland1520241967
Plum Branch1520241977
Lowrys1520212017
Pinewood1520191998
Jamestown1420191967
Chesnee1420151992
New Ellenton1320242010

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.