BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Arkansas has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Arkansas is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.2–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Arkansas is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.2–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.14.9
20273.52.15.0
20283.62.15.0
20293.62.15.0
20303.62.25.0

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Four Lakes1820011994
Magazine Mtn1620251993
Princeton1620141999
Dry Fork 2820252024
Lurton720231967
Havana720212010
Compton620221967
Rudy620252011
Stamps520191989
Lockesburg520192012
Boston Mtn.520251994
Old Milo420251967
Ozark Nf420251991
Poyen420071977
Waldron420251983
Rupert420241967
Princeton 2420222022
Eudora320251972
Ramsey319971981
Zion320241969
Yellville320252025
Crows219911991
Whitton219891968
Fulton220241967
Farwell220162010

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.