BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Arkansas has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+9%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Arkansas is projected to rise about 84% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.3–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+84%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±112.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Arkansas is projected to rise about 84% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.3–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.62.25.0
20263.62.25.0
20273.62.25.0
20283.72.25.1
20293.72.35.1

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Four Lakes1820011994
Princeton1620141999
Magazine Mtn820211993
Eudora720241972
Lurton720231967
Havana720212010
Old Milo620241967
Ozark Nf620241991
Compton620221967
Boston Mtn.620241994
Stamps520191989
Lockesburg520192012
Poyen420071977
Rupert420241967
Hatfield 2420242017
Princeton 2420222022
Dry Fork 2420242024
Ramsey319971981
Zion320241969
Rudy320242011
Crows219911991
Whitton219891968
Fulton220241967
Farwell220162010
Marshall220212011

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.