BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Virginia is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Virginia is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.90.0014
20276.70.0014
20286.50.0014
20296.40.0014
20306.20.0013

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shenandoa Np5420251993
New Market4120251992
Big Meadows4020251993
Newbern3319821968
Nat Tunnel3320251981
Front Royal3320251993
Hebron 22520252023
Blacksburg2420251988
Rural Retrt2320251982
Iron Mountain 22320132012
Putnam2220251969
Ivanhoe2119681966
Hebron2120221981
Branchville2020241966
Star Tannery1720251977
Concord1720241967
Marion1719821976
Dryden1720251991
Elamsville1620161978
Mountain Lk.1620181992
Truhart1620241996
Iron Mountain 31620232014
Iron Mtn.1520111992
Loft Mtn1420231993
Pine Mtn.1420251996

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.