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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Massachusetts has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has collapsed in Massachusetts: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0013
20270.000.0013
20280.000.0013
20290.000.0013
20300.000.0013

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gay Head3820251996
Chilmark2819831969
Prattville2220191966
Princeton2119761969
Cape Cod Ns2120071989
Belchertown1520251967
Wellfleet 21020252016
Pittsfield920161967
Ware River920221993
Brockton620191967
Warren 2620252010
E Dennis520211967
Marion520251966
Warren520091968
Sheffield520221969
Wellfleet420071966
N Oxford420251968
S Barre420251968
N Orange420251968
Monterey420252019
Holden420251977
Maynard320251967
Littleton220251967
E Pepperell219931966
Cummington220141968

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.