BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Eastern Towhee in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.0017
20271.30.0017
20280.880.0016
20290.430.0016
20300.000.0015

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 38320252021
Friendship4220251977
Spraguetown2619991977
Mt Misery2619891976
Pomona2520251978
Albion2120221966
Kemah Lake2120241966
Ancora2019771966
Bennett Mill1720001966
Toms River1520241966
Winslow1420251989
Del Haven1319911991
High Point1120251977
Spraguetown 21120122000
Villas919811979
Sandbrook820251969
Holmansville720091969
Estell Manor720252022
Deepwater619771969
Gillette520251988
Pottersville420241977
Greenwich320241966
Clarksville319911969
Hope319941970
Dover320221977

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.