BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Vermont has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has collapsed in Vermont: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Vermont is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±375.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±375.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Vermont is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±375.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.6
20260.000.001.6
20270.000.001.6
20280.000.001.6
20290.000.001.6

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North Pownal420241966
Gaysville320211966
S Wallingfrd220221966
W Rutland220241966
Northfld Fls219921987
Fletcher220091972
Hinesburg219811966
Marlboro119861966
Stratton120241966
Landgrove120241966
S Reading120101966
Post Mills119951966
Shaftsbury120241966
St Johnsbury119921971
East Haven120181966
Middlesex120001968
East Calais120081967
Newbury119901989
Hardwick120101966
Greensboro119931969
Waterville119751975
Colchester120132013
Grand Isle119761967
Bristol119981995

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.