BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Minnesota has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+171%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has surged in Minnesota: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Minnesota is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.22–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Minnesota is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.22–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.191.2
20260.700.201.2
20270.700.201.2
20280.710.211.2
20290.720.221.2

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherburne Nr3720242000
Caledonia 2920242013
Backus720241967
Caledonia520121993
Whitewater 2420192011
Money Creek320241970
Ash Creek220092009
Whitewater220001994
Maynard219941994
Nebish219951982
Evergreen220241968
Bemidji219791967
Debs220071969
Chatfield 2220242006
Chatfield119941968
Huntley120222022
Millville120171970
Tamarac Nwr120161991
Minnetonka120042004
Courtland120072001
Redwood Fall119831983
Cass Lake119941980
Princeton120131993
Cromwell120041967
Wigwam Bay119841984

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.