BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.9 (95% range 2.2–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.9 (95% range 2.2–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.42.710
20266.22.69.9
20276.12.59.8
20286.02.49.7
20295.92.29.5

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil3319971996
Paintsville2819951979
Carter1920241976
Cumberlnd Gp1820181966
Mammoth Cave1720141995
Johnsonville1520211966
Porter1320241966
Kehoe1219921966
Pine Ridge1119781966
Joy1120231966
Boxville1019831966
Lovelacevile920241967
Sunnybrook920221968
Merrimac920241967
Pleasurevill920241979
Lebanon Junction920242000
Canton820241967
Pippa Passes819971988
Hudson820241966
Eastview820241967
Sewell Shop820231966
Goshen719991966
Bays Fork720191999
Hodgenville 2720232008
Cedar Grove620241966

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.