BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Kentucky is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 2.2–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Kentucky is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 2.2–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.32.79.9
20276.22.59.8
20286.02.49.7
20295.92.39.5
20305.82.29.4

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil3319971996
Paintsville2819951979
Cumberlnd Gp1820181966
Mammoth Cave1720141995
Shiloh1520251967
Johnsonville1520211966
Cedar Grove1420251966
Kehoe1219921966
Pine Ridge1119781966
Eastview1120251967
Joy1120231966
Porter1120251966
Hudson1020251966
Boxville1019831966
Carter1020251976
Keysburg920251968
Sunnybrook920221968
Merrimac920241967
Sewell Shop920251966
Lebanon Junction920252000
Pippa Passes819971988
Canton720251967
Mckee720251967
Goshen719991966
Bays Fork720191999

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.