BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Kansas has surged: up 472% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+472%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Towhee Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has surged in Kansas: up 471% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Eastern Towhee Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Kansas is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.36–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Kansas is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.36–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.320.74
20260.540.330.75
20270.550.340.76
20280.560.350.77
20290.560.360.77

Eastern Towhee Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coats619981971
Dover420221980
Jamestown420172002
Olathe320211971
Grantville320211967
Hanover220231972
Seneca220221975
Hollenberg220231971
Beloit 2220132013
Severance220242001
Olsburg220242000
Melrose120001977
Galesburg120241995
Humboldt120222004
Lapland120031990
Jewell 2120092009
Barclay120221970
Wreford120241971
Buckeye120221997
Kanopolis120161991
Leoville119681968
Rock Creek120191968
Minneapolis120022002
Phillipsburg120021994
Bucyrus120232022

Eastern Towhee Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.