BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-4%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.12
20270.050.000.12
20280.050.000.12
20290.050.000.12
20300.050.000.12

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoatsKANSAS61998
HanoverKANSAS22023
HollenbergKANSAS22025
Beloit 2KANSAS22013
LibertyNEBRASKA21991
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA21971
BuckeyeKANSAS12022
KanopolisKANSAS12016
LeovilleKANSAS11968
MinneapolisKANSAS12002
PhillipsburgKANSAS12025
SolomonKANSAS12017
Jewell 2KANSAS12009
JamestownKANSAS12025
BelvidereNEBRASKA12024
KearneyNEBRASKA12009
SumnerNEBRASKA12004
HolbrookNEBRASKA12015
SurpriseNEBRASKA12025
PetersburgNEBRASKA12017
GordonNEBRASKA11976
BradyNEBRASKA12018
RinggoldNEBRASKA12000
Liberty 2NEBRASKA12007
BerwynNEBRASKA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.