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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-37%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.12
20260.050.000.12
20270.050.000.12
20280.050.000.12
20290.050.000.12

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoatsKANSAS61998
JamestownKANSAS42017
HanoverKANSAS22023
HollenbergKANSAS22023
Beloit 2KANSAS22013
LibertyNEBRASKA21991
Liberty 3NEBRASKA22019
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA21971
BuckeyeKANSAS12022
KanopolisKANSAS12016
LeovilleKANSAS11968
MinneapolisKANSAS12002
PhillipsburgKANSAS12002
SolomonKANSAS12017
Jewell 2KANSAS12009
BelvidereNEBRASKA12024
KearneyNEBRASKA12009
SumnerNEBRASKA12004
HolbrookNEBRASKA12015
SurpriseNEBRASKA12021
PetersburgNEBRASKA12017
GordonNEBRASKA11976
BradyNEBRASKA12018
RinggoldNEBRASKA12000
Liberty 2NEBRASKA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.