BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.004.3
20261.80.004.2
20271.80.004.2
20281.70.004.2
20291.70.004.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK202024
FowlerNEW-YORK171968
BranchportNEW-YORK152024
OgdensburgNEW-YORK132024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA132023
DuanesburgNEW-YORK112024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA112024
WatertownNEW-YORK82012
CayugaNEW-YORK72024
NashvilleNEW-YORK72018
HebronOHIO72024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA72023
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA72024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK62024
LucerneOHIO62024
OrleansNEW-YORK52024
Canadice LNEW-YORK52024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK52024
PulaskiNEW-YORK52024
GarrettsvileOHIO51991
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA52024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK41995
SheridanNEW-YORK42024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK41998
ArgyleNEW-YORK42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.