BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.004.4
20271.90.004.3
20281.80.004.3
20291.80.004.2
20301.80.004.2

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FowlerNEW-YORK171968
OgdensburgNEW-YORK172025
BranchportNEW-YORK152024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK132025
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA122025
WatertownNEW-YORK82012
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA82025
North PownalVERMONT82025
DuanesburgNEW-YORK72025
NashvilleNEW-YORK72018
HebronOHIO72025
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA72025
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA62025
RhinebeckNEW-YORK52025
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK52025
GarrettsvileOHIO51991
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA52025
AusterlitzNEW-YORK42025
Ballston LkNEW-YORK41995
Canadice LNEW-YORK42025
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK42025
PulaskiNEW-YORK42025
N WilmurtNEW-YORK41998
SalemNEW-YORK42025
ArgyleNEW-YORK42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.