BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968
84Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029
1.7Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.195% range
±60.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.90.004.3
20261.80.004.2
20271.80.004.2
20281.70.004.2
20291.70.004.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK202024
FowlerNEW-YORK171968
BranchportNEW-YORK152024
OgdensburgNEW-YORK132024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA132023
DuanesburgNEW-YORK112024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA112024
WatertownNEW-YORK82012
CayugaNEW-YORK72024
NashvilleNEW-YORK72018
HebronOHIO72024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA72023
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA72024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK62024
LucerneOHIO62024
OrleansNEW-YORK52024
Canadice LNEW-YORK52024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK52024
PulaskiNEW-YORK52024
GarrettsvileOHIO51991
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA52024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK41995
SheridanNEW-YORK42024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK41998
ArgyleNEW-YORK42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.