BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
345Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191424
2026191424
2027191324
2028181324
2029181323

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NeedmoreGEORGIA1291983
Broad BranchFLORIDA912024
LovedaleFLORIDA832011
BettsFLORIDA732024
GlenmoreGEORGIA632024
New HopeFLORIDA592011
Seminole HlsFLORIDA572000
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI571987
NixonFLORIDA521986
BloxhamFLORIDA512022
WeberGEORGIA512024
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA512024
DouglasGEORGIA451984
Alligator PtFLORIDA442024
Amite RiverMISSISSIPPI442013
FontainbleauMISSISSIPPI431978
WashingtonNORTH-CAROLINA432024
Green SwampNORTH-CAROLINA432006
Leaf RiverMISSISSIPPI422013
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA411982
Big OakGEORGIA382024
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA372022
Thornton RoadGEORGIA372024
DickeyGEORGIA372018
Miller XrdsFLORIDA362019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.