BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.3–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.3–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.21.35.1
20263.21.35.1
20273.21.35.1
20283.21.35.1
20293.21.35.1

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI292018
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI132022
FrogmoreLOUISIANA112024
CarlisleLOUISIANA91988
IsolaMISSISSIPPI82022
EudoraARKANSAS72024
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA72022
ConcordLOUISIANA72019
ShawLOUISIANA62024
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI62024
FreetownLOUISIANA52019
GonzalesLOUISIANA52015
Morgan CityLOUISIANA52014
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI52024
BardwellKENTUCKY42003
CommerceMISSISSIPPI41993
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI42024
TippoMISSISSIPPI42024
MayflowerLOUISIANA32024
TchulaMISSISSIPPI31975
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI32023
MoonMISSISSIPPI32021
HaytiMISSOURI32019
PawpawTENNESSEE32012
WhittonARKANSAS21989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.