BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.2–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.2–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.11.25.1
20273.11.25.1
20283.11.25.0
20293.11.25.0
20303.11.25.0

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI292018
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI132022
CarlisleLOUISIANA91988
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA92025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA82025
IsolaMISSISSIPPI82022
MayflowerLOUISIANA72025
ConcordLOUISIANA72019
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI72025
ShawLOUISIANA62024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI62025
FreetownLOUISIANA52019
GonzalesLOUISIANA52015
Morgan CityLOUISIANA52014
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI52025
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI52025
BardwellKENTUCKY42003
CommerceMISSISSIPPI41993
TippoMISSISSIPPI42024
EudoraARKANSAS32025
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY32025
TchulaMISSISSIPPI31975
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI32025
MoonMISSISSIPPI32021
HaytiMISSOURI32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.