BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
257Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.81.32.3
20271.81.32.3
20281.91.42.4
20291.91.42.4
20301.91.42.4

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash RidgeOHIO152021
West ElktonOHIO142012
MurdockNEBRASKA132025
SticklervillMISSOURI102025
GildehouseMISSOURI101989
EmdenMISSOURI102024
DanvilleMISSOURI92025
Harveysburg 2OHIO92025
House SpringsMISSOURI82025
HarveysburgOHIO81996
KellILLINOIS72025
WallaceINDIANA72024
New CastleINDIANA72024
McfallMISSOURI72025
UnionMISSOURI71999
FriendswoodINDIANA62024
RensselaerMISSOURI62025
HuntsvilleMISSOURI62025
Kahoka2MISSOURI62024
GeraldMISSOURI62025
MoselleMISSOURI62025
SheffieldILLINOIS52024
St MorganILLINOIS52022
Mt VernonILLINOIS52025
College Spgs 2IOWA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.