BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
255Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has risen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.42.3
20261.91.42.4
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20291.91.42.4

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harveysburg 2OHIO212024
Ash RidgeOHIO152021
West ElktonOHIO142012
GildehouseMISSOURI101989
EmdenMISSOURI102024
ExlineIOWA92024
HuntsvilleMISSOURI92024
GeraldMISSOURI92024
Witts StationINDIANA82024
HarveysburgOHIO81996
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS72024
EubanksILLINOIS72022
MarshallILLINOIS72024
KellILLINOIS72024
BrookvilleINDIANA72024
WallaceINDIANA72024
New CastleINDIANA72024
DanvilleMISSOURI72024
WatsonMISSOURI72024
UnionMISSOURI71999
FriendswoodINDIANA62024
New PointMISSOURI62024
Kahoka2MISSOURI62024
House SpringsMISSOURI62024
SheffieldILLINOIS52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.