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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.001.9
20260.800.001.9
20270.780.001.9
20280.750.001.9
20290.730.001.8

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Union TwpWISCONSIN612024
MinongWISCONSIN292024
HarriettaMICHIGAN222024
Grand ViewWISCONSIN82024
BackusMINNESOTA72024
Lake CityMICHIGAN52022
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN51989
HollisterWISCONSIN52024
SkeelsMICHIGAN42015
HermanMICHIGAN31997
Maple GroveMICHIGAN31996
IshpemingMICHIGAN32023
IsabellaMICHIGAN31998
Bear LakeMICHIGAN32024
Sand LakeMICHIGAN32024
Betchler LksMICHIGAN32023
AmbergWISCONSIN32024
Ned LakeMICHIGAN22022
GilchristMICHIGAN21989
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN21976
Brush CreekMICHIGAN22016
FredericMICHIGAN22003
Red OakMICHIGAN22022
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN22024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.