BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Eastern Towhee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

14×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Towhee In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.22.14.3
20273.22.14.4
20283.32.24.4
20293.32.24.5
20303.42.34.5

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA211997
MarionLOUISIANA191996
Four LakesARKANSAS182001
PrincetonARKANSAS162014
Magazine MtnARKANSAS162025
OakdaleLOUISIANA141994
Flat CreekLOUISIANA132025
Lake CoveLOUISIANA132018
TroutLOUISIANA122025
HargisLOUISIANA112011
Hargis 2LOUISIANA112014
EastonLOUISIANA91990
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS82025
HavanaARKANSAS72021
FishvilleLOUISIANA72017
StampsARKANSAS52019
LockesburgARKANSAS52019
ManyLOUISIANA51992
Fishville 2LOUISIANA52025
Fort JessupLOUISIANA52023
GraysonLOUISIANA52021
EvelynLOUISIANA52024
EnterpriseLOUISIANA52025
BethelOKLAHOMA52025
Old MiloARKANSAS42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.