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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

13×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Towhee In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.22.14.3
20263.32.24.4
20273.32.24.4
20283.42.34.5
20293.42.34.5

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA211997
Flat CreekLOUISIANA202024
MarionLOUISIANA191996
Four LakesARKANSAS182001
PrincetonARKANSAS162014
OakdaleLOUISIANA141994
Lake CoveLOUISIANA132018
Ivan 2LOUISIANA122016
TroutLOUISIANA112024
HargisLOUISIANA112011
Hargis 2LOUISIANA112014
EastonLOUISIANA91990
Magazine MtnARKANSAS82021
EnterpriseLOUISIANA82024
HavanaARKANSAS72021
FishvilleLOUISIANA72017
LinvilleLOUISIANA72023
GoodwillLOUISIANA72024
Old MiloARKANSAS62024
StampsARKANSAS52019
LockesburgARKANSAS52019
ManyLOUISIANA51992
Fort JessupLOUISIANA52023
GraysonLOUISIANA52021
EvelynLOUISIANA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.