BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.81.318
20269.30.8218
20278.80.3417
20288.40.0017
20297.90.0016

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OcalaFLORIDA1162024
AlturasFLORIDA981986
GardnerFLORIDA651999
Babcock RnchFLORIDA591990
ChassahowitzFLORIDA592024
CitrusFLORIDA572024
GoetheFLORIDA492024
SalvistaFLORIDA391979
BrowardFLORIDA321973
ChildsFLORIDA282022
ArbuckleFLORIDA282019
PinelandsFLORIDA252024
Island GroveFLORIDA222024
WebbFLORIDA202024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA192011
MicanopyFLORIDA171991
PalmdaleFLORIDA172023
Merritt IslFLORIDA172011
BelmoreFLORIDA142024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA132024
Boca RatonFLORIDA131982
Green SwampFLORIDA112024
MabelFLORIDA102011
ShawanoFLORIDA102002
Lake BuffumFLORIDA102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.