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Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-39%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.11
20260.040.000.11
20270.040.000.11
20280.040.000.11
20290.040.000.11

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MidwayNEBRASKA62016
PoncaNEBRASKA42024
MaynardMINNESOTA21994
WashingtonIOWA12024
ScrantonIOWA12018
ClareIOWA12019
GarnerIOWA11987
HuntleyMINNESOTA12022
CourtlandMINNESOTA12007
Redwood FallMINNESOTA11983
OkleeMINNESOTA11993
WylieMINNESOTA11973
GryglaMINNESOTA12005
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA11998
FranklinMINNESOTA12022
SpartaNEBRASKA11998
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA12010
Winside 2NEBRASKA12022
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA11974
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA11996
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA12024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA11988
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.