BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Eastern Towhee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.006.3
20270.280.005.9
20280.000.005.7
20290.000.005.7
20300.000.005.7

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY832025
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY422025
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS382025
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND302025
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS281983
Jones BeachNEW-YORK272013
SpraguetownNEW-JERSEY261999
Mt MiseryNEW-JERSEY261989
PomonaNEW-JERSEY252025
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND252025
La PlataMARYLAND232009
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS222019
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS211976
Cape Cod NsMASSACHUSETTS212007
AlbionNEW-JERSEY212022
AncoraNEW-JERSEY201977
CheltenhamMARYLAND192004
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND191992
WarrenCONNECTICUT172011
Bennett MillNEW-JERSEY172000
Forest GroveMARYLAND162023
TruhartVIRGINIA162024
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS152025
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY152024
LargoMARYLAND141981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.