BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.006.1
20260.240.005.8
20270.000.005.6
20280.000.005.6
20290.000.005.6

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY802024
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS382024
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY362024
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS281983
Jones BeachNEW-YORK272013
SpraguetownNEW-JERSEY261999
Mt MiseryNEW-JERSEY261989
La PlataMARYLAND232009
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS222019
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS211976
Cape Cod NsMASSACHUSETTS212007
AlbionNEW-JERSEY212022
AncoraNEW-JERSEY201977
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND202010
CheltenhamMARYLAND192004
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND191992
WarrenCONNECTICUT172011
Bennett MillNEW-JERSEY172000
Forest GroveMARYLAND162023
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS162024
PomonaNEW-JERSEY162024
TruhartVIRGINIA162024
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY152024
LargoMARYLAND141981
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.