BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±781.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±781.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±781.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.003.2
20260.000.003.2
20270.000.003.2
20280.000.003.2
20290.000.003.2

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KasoagNEW-YORK102024
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS92016
New HartfordCONNECTICUT61987
BiddefordMAINE52019
South ArmMAINE51999
Bowdoin CtrMAINE51999
BrownfieldMAINE52009
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS52022
SabattisNEW-YORK41971
WestbrookMAINE32024
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
GaysvilleVERMONT32021
New HartfordCONNECTICUT22024
NewcastleMAINE22004
TurnerMAINE22002
BrooksMAINE21988
HermonMAINE22017
Turner 2MAINE22012
Brownfield 2MAINE22023
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS22014
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS22024
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS22022
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.