BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Towhee In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Eastern Towhee in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
406Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026141017
2027141017
2028141017
2029141017
2030141017

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA732025
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA602024
Shenandoa NpVIRGINIA542025
Sproul Sf-BPENNSYLVANIA502025
Sproul Sf-APENNSYLVANIA492025
Rothrock SfPENNSYLVANIA472019
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA462025
OdinPENNSYLVANIA442025
Tick RidgeOHIO432019
New MarketVIRGINIA412025
DenmarWEST-VIRGINIA412025
JenningsMARYLAND402025
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA402025
FinzelMARYLAND382025
RiversideALABAMA362013
HixWEST-VIRGINIA362025
DearmanvilleALABAMA351983
ParkwoodPENNSYLVANIA352025
Piney GroveMARYLAND342025
Pt PleasantWEST-VIRGINIA342025
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY331997
NewbernVIRGINIA331982
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA332025
Front RoyalVIRGINIA332025
Broad Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA322025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.