BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
405Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Towhee in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Eastern Towhee In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025141017
2026141017
2027141017
2028141017
2029141017

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sproul Sf-APENNSYLVANIA612024
FinzelMARYLAND602024
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA602024
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA582024
BramwellWEST-VIRGINIA522023
Sproul Sf-BPENNSYLVANIA502024
Broad Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA492024
Rothrock SfPENNSYLVANIA472019
New MarketVIRGINIA462024
Tick RidgeOHIO432019
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA422024
JenningsMARYLAND392024
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA382024
CartersvilleGEORGIA372024
Piney GroveMARYLAND372024
RiversideALABAMA362013
Shenandoa NpVIRGINIA362024
HixWEST-VIRGINIA362024
DearmanvilleALABAMA351983
OdinPENNSYLVANIA352024
KymulgaALABAMA342024
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY331997
NewbernVIRGINIA331982
PedroWEST-VIRGINIA332024
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA322024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.