BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Towhee In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Eastern Towhee in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Towhee has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Towhee In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.1 (95% range 3.7–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Towhee in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.1 (95% range 3.7–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.54.08.9
20266.44.08.8
20276.33.98.7
20286.23.88.6
20296.13.78.6

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Eastern Towhee in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SwaimALABAMA312024
RomeOHIO252024
BradyvilleTENNESSEE252021
GeorgiaINDIANA232024
Indian MoundTENNESSEE231998
TrianaALABAMA222012
Wheeler DamALABAMA212023
RoyaltonILLINOIS202024
TullahomaTENNESSEE182015
Carter GroveALABAMA172023
YorkILLINOIS172024
Indian SpgsINDIANA172024
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY172014
CollinwoodTENNESSEE172024
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE172024
New PhilaINDIANA152024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY152021
Silver PtTENNESSEE152024
ElkmontALABAMA142024
BelmontINDIANA142024
IrontonMISSOURI141980
DelwoodILLINOIS132024
SpencerINDIANA132024
PorterKENTUCKY132024
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA122010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.