BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Analysis

IcteriidaeForest birdsIcteria virens

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2,351RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Yellow-breasted Chat

The Yellow-breasted Chat (Icteria virens) is a North American member of the Yellow-breasted Chat (Icteriidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
about 7 in long (18 cm) — a large warbler-like songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 2,351 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 44 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Icteriidae · Forest birds

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.0–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.0–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.13.8
20272.41.13.8
20282.41.13.8
20292.41.13.7
20302.41.03.7

Where the Yellow-breasted Chat Is Detected

BBS routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat, sized by most recent count.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend by State

Yellow-breasted Chat population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-36%1968107
Arizona+14%197034
Arkansas-15%196961
California-8%1970110
Colorado-7%197155
Connecticutinsufficient datan/a4
Delaware-30%196817
Florida+128%196845
Georgia-55%1968108
Idaho+563%197027
Illinois+170%196884
Indiana-59%196864
Iowa+303%196911
Kansas+651%196933
Kentucky-57%196864
Louisiana+109%196988
Maryland-83%196876
Massachusettsinsufficient datan/a1
Michigan-79%196820
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a1
Mississippi+51%196873
Missouri+23%196991
Montana-23%197053
Nebraska+630%197223
Nevada+937%197125
New Jersey-88%196826
New Mexico12×197741
New York-54%196828
North Carolina-19%1968106
North Dakota-57%196920
Ohio-69%196882
Oklahoma+69%196939
Oregon-8%197065
Pennsylvania-96%1968103
South Carolina-40%196850
South Dakota+471%196925
Tennessee-40%196854
Texas+87%1969135
Utah+942%197255
Virginia-60%196882
Washington+47%197048
West Virginia-94%196860
Wisconsin-31%197111
Wyoming+11%197146

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Yellow-breasted Chat population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-43%197068
Great Basin+222%1970108
Northern Rockies+104%197081
Prairie Potholes-77%196917
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-94%196836
Sierra Nevada+131%197913
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+395%1970105
Badlands and Prairies+71%196983
Shortgrass Prairie+399%198133
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+712%197035
Edwards Plateau17×197018
Oaks and Prairies-41%196939
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+23%1968211
Prairie Hardwood Transition-29%196849
Central Hardwoods-57%1968166
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+55%1969110
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-37%196866
Southeastern Coastal Plain-2%1968331
Appalachian Mountains-85%1968335
Piedmont-50%1968160
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-69%196895
Peninsular Florida-60%19778
Coastal California+57%197050
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+226%197328
Sierra Madre Occidental-36%197023
Chihuahuan Desert+746%196941
Tamaulipan Brushlands+135%197515
Gulf Coastal Prairie+164%196925

Yellow-breasted Chat Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 54% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.