BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
334Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.003.2
20260.960.003.0
20270.860.002.9
20280.750.002.8
20290.640.002.7

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Borden SprngALABAMA421998
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY381997
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY371995
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA291979
KehoeKENTUCKY271992
BrooksvilleALABAMA222023
GeslingKENTUCKY211973
Mt OliveALABAMA202024
ChildersburgALABAMA191999
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA192024
MckeeKENTUCKY192024
StevensonALABAMA182024
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY182024
WallandTENNESSEE181989
Jones GapTENNESSEE182019
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY172024
Coal RunOHIO171992
Pike S.F.OHIO172013
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY161978
OdenvilleALABAMA152024
LandrumSOUTH-CAROLINA141992
DearmanvilleALABAMA131983
GreensportALABAMA132024
CarterKENTUCKY132024
StickleyvillVIRGINIA131990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.