BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Washington has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Washington. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Washington is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Washington is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.001.2
20260.470.001.2
20270.470.001.2
20280.480.001.2
20290.480.001.2

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Yakima2020241993
Lake Chelan2020241988
Nighthawk1420241992
Ellensburg1320241981
Spring Lake1020242012
Cloverland1020241993
Twisp720241969
Waitsburg420041994
Ardenvoir319871968
Pomeroy320242021
Brewster220151981
Keller220071968
Asotin220241985
Winthrop220182018
Twin Lakes220241984
Prescott219811981
Keystone220222022
Laurier220191996
Moses Coulee220231998
Mendota 3220242015
Newhalem119761976
Chewelah120101977
Arid Land Er119961996
Kamilche119701970
L Pend O Nwr120082008

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.