BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Washington has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Washington. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Washington is projected to fall about 68% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Washington is projected to fall about 68% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.570.001.3
20270.570.001.3
20280.580.001.3
20290.580.001.3
20300.590.001.4

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ellensburg1920251981
Yakima1820251993
Lake Chelan1820251988
Nighthawk1120251992
Cloverland1020251993
Twisp720241969
Spring Lake620252012
Waitsburg420041994
Ardenvoir319871968
Pomeroy320242021
Brewster220151981
Keller220071968
Asotin220251985
Winthrop220182018
Prescott219811981
Keystone220222022
Laurier220191996
Mendota 3220242015
Newhalem119761976
Chewelah120101977
Arid Land Er119961996
Kamilche119701970
Vashon Is.120252025
L Pend O Nwr120082008
Mendota 2119921992

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.