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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Tennessee has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Tennessee is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 2.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Tennessee is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 2.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.63.212
20277.53.112
20287.43.012
20297.32.912
20307.12.812

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield3720251966
Big Sandy3620251966
Brownsville2820251966
Silerton2620241966
Collinwood2220251966
Tibbs2020251966
Whiteville1820251966
Walland1819891966
Jones Gap1820191982
Sweetlips1720231966
Trenton1720231966
Humboldt1620251966
Belotes Bend1520181966
Indian Mound 21120232004
Lewis Forest1020251966
Tiptonville920251966
Smokey Jct920221966
Pawpaw 2920252013
Bradyville820211966
Climer820041967
Pawpaw720121966
Silver Pt720241966
Elk Valley720251970
Indian Mound619981966
Campbellsville620171966

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.