BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Tennessee has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Tennessee is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 2.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Tennessee is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 2.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.43.112
20267.33.012
20277.22.912
20287.12.811
20297.02.711

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield5020241966
Big Sandy3320241966
Silerton2620241966
Collinwood2620241966
Whiteville2120241966
Tibbs2020241966
Humboldt1920241966
Walland1819891966
Jones Gap1820191982
Sweetlips1720231966
Trenton1720231966
Brownsville1620241966
Belotes Bend1520181966
Indian Mound 21120232004
Smokey Jct920221966
Bradyville820211966
Climer820041967
Pawpaw720121966
Silver Pt720241966
Indian Mound619981966
Campbellsville620171966
Tiptonville520231966
Moscow520241966
Elk Valley520221970
Pond Creek420241966

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.