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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in North Carolina has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in North Carolina is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.6–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in North Carolina is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.6–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.13.58.7
20276.13.68.7
20286.13.68.7
20296.13.68.7
20306.13.68.7

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washington4220252001
Ernul4020092001
Spring Hope3820252002
Chowan River2720062002
Cayton2620242010
Reelsboro2520191997
Rhems2519931990
Jackson2020171995
Jamesville1720251983
Uwharrie Nf1620011993
Rheasville1320172005
Green Swamp1320062002
California1220131972
Youngsville1220251967
Gupton1220252001
Speed1120251966
Hamlet1120251995
Pinetops1120241997
Kinston1020241966
Madison919811966
Biscoe920251990
Dortches920251990
Bullock920251997
Arapahoe719951967
Jonas Ridge719711968

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.