BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in North Carolina has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in North Carolina is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.7–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in North Carolina is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.7–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.23.78.8
20266.23.78.8
20276.33.78.8
20286.33.78.8
20296.33.78.8

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ernul4020092001
Washington3520242001
Spring Hope3520242002
Chowan River2720062002
Cayton2620242010
Reelsboro2520191997
Rhems2519931990
Jackson2020171995
Uwharrie Nf1620011993
Rheasville1320172005
Green Swamp1320062002
California1220131972
Arcola1220241971
Jamesville1220241983
Biscoe1220171990
Bullock1220241997
Hamlet1120241995
Pinetops1120241997
Dortches1120241990
Gupton1120242001
Kinston1020241966
California 21020242014
Madison919811966
Speed820241966
Arapahoe719951967

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.