BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Kansas has surged: up 610% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+610%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Kansas: up 610% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Kansas is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.01–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Kansas is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.01–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.000.88
20260.440.000.89
20270.450.000.90
20280.460.010.90
20290.460.010.91

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading Post3420242000
Leoville220111981
Rock Creek220181990
Morehead220242016
Olsburg220242001
Melrose120231967
Galesburg120241971
Humboldt120172017
Lapland119821974
St John120152015
Coats119741974
Lakin120212021
Olathe120081974
Dover119951984
Barclay120011968
Wreford119881984
Albert119921992
Kanopolis120212001
Gray119891989
Grantville120181983
Hanover120222022
Hollenberg120232023
Covert120221997
Jewell119691968
Phillipsburg119941970

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.