BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Ohio has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in Ohio: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Ohio is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Ohio is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.002.9
20271.30.002.8
20281.30.002.7
20291.20.002.7
20301.10.002.6

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rome2020251966
Coal Run1719921966
Pike S.F.1720131992
Dresden1220251966
Greasy Ridge1219911966
Wilgus1120191992
Scioto Trail820131992
Omega720241966
Adamsville619891971
Smithfield620251966
Tick Ridge620191993
Winterset519831967
Ray520251992
Scioto Furn520221992
Birmingham520241988
South Olive520251993
Newcomerstwn419951966
Dunlap419861966
Coshocton419911990
Wayne N.F.420251992
Zaleski S.F.420251992
Marion320181966
Westerville319781966
Maysville320101992
New Marshfld320251966

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.