BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in New Jersey has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has collapsed in New Jersey: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.26
20260.020.000.25
20270.020.000.25
20280.010.000.24
20290.010.000.24

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope519941973
Roosevelt219861986
Woodbury Hgt120161968
Greenwich119991966
Six Points120141981
Deepwater119761969
Albion119891989
Ancora119691969
Masonville119661966
Bennett Mill119711966
Sandbrook120241970
Holmansville119691969
New Bedford119921987
Croton119961970
Robbinsville119791968
Kemah Lake119901990
Dover119811979
Pottersville120102010
Friendship119911988
Pomona119841984
Villas119791979
Pedricktown 2120222022
Cape May Ch120111993
Pedricktown120111991
Winslow119991989

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.