BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Montana has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-20%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Montana. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Montana is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Montana is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.000.82
20260.400.000.82
20270.400.000.81
20280.390.000.81
20290.390.000.81

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laurel1020221974
Forsyth820231980
Reed Point820241977
St Xavier620111979
Muddy Creek620152015
Savage520211977
Brandenberg520191968
Custer420222022
Greenough319961996
Libby Dam219931985
Pryor Mtn.220232001
St Xavier 2220232017
Brusett220241985
Jordan220242010
Shawmut219901981
Twin Bridges219711971
Powderville220071976
Lindsay220162016
Hehn Draw220242016
Flatwillow 2120232011
Cleveland120241980
Harlem120211980
Glen120011979
Glasgow119791979
Redstone120171972

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.