BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in South Carolina has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in South Carolina is projected to rise about 138% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 2.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+138%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in South Carolina is projected to rise about 138% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 2.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.42.315
20268.42.315
20278.42.314
20288.32.214
20298.32.214

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carvers Bay2320121998
Cauthens Xrd1620211982
Greenwood1520191998
Landrum1419921972
Nixville1420211998
Chesnee1220151992
Boykin Ml Pd1119681966
Kingstree1120102010
Blacksburg1120131998
Mount Pisgah1120211998
Holly Hill1020241972
Olar1020191998
Foreston920211966
Salem Xrd920191982
Ridgeway920212010
Adams Run920241988
Joanna820231999
Dillon720211970
Pendleton719761966
Plum Branch720241977
Sandhills720241994
Bennettsville720171998
Owings620041992
Salem620242010
Walterboro520171970

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.