BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Colorado has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+3%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Colorado is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Colorado is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.000.90
20260.350.000.89
20270.350.000.88
20280.340.000.88
20290.340.000.87

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
De Beque2220241992
Cokedale1820241995
Douglas Pass1320241985
Trinchera720222019
Doyle Bridge419941992
Blackhead Pk419961991
Harmony320241973
Rosevale320242023
Doyle Bridge 2320231998
Rifle Falls320191998
Maybell220062006
Parlin220001993
Wray Gulch220231988
Baxter Pass220242009
Walsenburg220242002
Thomasville219921992
Wet Mtns.220242003
Nucla220242008
Haycamp Mesa220242003
Arsenal120142010
Buford120211988
Aspen120232023
Arsenal 2120182018
Delta120211973
Lamar120182015

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.