BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Illinois

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Illinois has surged: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+179%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Illinois: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Illinois is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.74–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.74–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Illinois is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.74–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.703.8
20262.30.713.8
20272.30.723.8
20282.30.733.8
20292.30.743.8

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Belknap2220241970
Beaverdam Lk2120231970
Sandusky2120231993
Pulaski1920241970
Royalton1820242001
Belleview1520241966
Delwood1420241970
Cave In Rock1320241993
Bremen1220241969
Karnak1220242001
Bradbury1120241970
York1120241999
Brownville1020241993
Robinson820231970
Mt Vernon620241971
Gulfport520231979
Janesville520241973
Beaucoup520241971
Brnt Prairie520241976
Marshall520242010
Athensville420221971
Columbia420231966
Mascoutah Lk420241967
Olney420241966
Kell420242001

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.