BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in South Dakota has surged: up 595% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+595%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in South Dakota: up 594% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in South Dakota is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in South Dakota is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.001.0
20260.340.001.0
20270.330.001.0
20280.330.001.0
20290.330.001.0

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Badlands820221982
Rosebud620101971
Rockyford620221970
Reva420241979
Wind Cave Np320241999
Laplant320131971
Custer320241967
Cedar Pass320151969
Britton219701970
Promise219991971
Elk Mountain220011993
Chamberlain120111968
French Creek120052005
Ft Thompson120111968
Owanka120012001
Roubaix Lk119761976
Ottumwa119921991
Fort Pierre119711970
Maurine120021968
Eagle Butte120102010
Ardmore119911977
Lacreek120142014
White River119971997
Pleasant Val120222016
Hazelrodt120242002

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.