BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in South Dakota has surged: up 471% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+471%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in South Dakota: up 471% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in South Dakota is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in South Dakota is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.001.0
20270.350.001.0
20280.350.001.0
20290.350.001.0
20300.350.001.0

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rosebud620101971
Badlands620251982
Wind Cave Np320251999
Laplant320131971
Cedar Pass320151969
Reva320251979
Rockyford220251970
Britton219701970
Promise219991971
Custer220251967
Elk Mountain220011993
Chamberlain120111968
French Creek120052005
Ft Thompson120111968
Owanka120012001
Roubaix Lk119761976
Ottumwa119921991
Fort Pierre119711970
Maurine120021968
Eagle Butte120102010
Ardmore119911977
Lacreek120142014
White River119971997
Pleasant Val120222016
Hazelrodt120242002

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.