BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Oklahoma has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+98%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Oklahoma: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.9–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.9–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.75.7
20264.32.85.8
20274.32.85.8
20284.42.95.9
20294.42.95.9

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pushmataha5920231994
Goodwater4820211992
Hee Mountain3420241999
Bethel3420241993
Blanco2220161967
Mt. Herman720221998
Big Cedar620241967
Pocola520161992
Indianola320241968
Keetonville320221993
Mcalester219911967
Phillips220081969
Canadian220061979
Holdenville220241967
Choctaw219791971
Bartlesville220241967
Colcord220221992
Mill Creek120181970
Phroso120222022
Ouachita Nf120241991
Baron120231967
Beggs120181967
Noble120231967
Verden119731973
Wichita Mts West120082008

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.