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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Louisiana has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Louisiana: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Louisiana is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 13–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Louisiana is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 13–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191225
2026191225
2027191325
2028191325
2029191326

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Derry 25220241990
Lake Cove5220182008
Flat Creek5120241998
Trout4820241988
Womack4420241999
Fort Jessup4320231998
Goodwill4120242004
Clay4020241968
Marion4019961988
Linville3820241998
Norwood3620242004
Chatham3519751967
Enterprise3320242006
Longstreet3220241967
Many3219921989
Grayson3220212005
Mount Union3020241998
Ivan 23020162014
Zwolle2820231998
Ivan2820131998
Derry2719891967
Oakdale2719941991
Fishville 22620242018
Evelyn2620242004
Carterville2319921992

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.