BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in West Virginia has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has collapsed in West Virginia: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in West Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±264%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±264%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in West Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±264%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.004.2
20270.000.004.2
20280.000.004.2
20290.000.004.2
20300.000.004.2

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arlee2919791966
Paradise1020251966
Pt Pleasant820251973
Hubbardstown820251966
Mcdonald820231987
Lost River720232013
Stollings620211986
Slate520251980
Bebee520251972
Welch420251980
Spencer420241986
Moundsville420241972
Smoot320231980
Ghent320241978
Fayetteville319961980
Sutton320231976
Rockport320251966
Hix220251970
Nicut220251986
Denmar219891980
Berryburg219961975
Albright219741966
Mt Storm219751966
Sleepy Creek219861966
Bismark220221976

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.