BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in West Virginia has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-93%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has collapsed in West Virginia: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in West Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±256.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±256.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in West Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±256.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.004.2
20260.000.004.2
20270.000.004.2
20280.000.004.2
20290.000.004.2

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arlee2919791966
Mcdonald820231987
Lost River720232013
Stollings620211986
Bebee620241972
Hubbardstown520231966
Rockport520241966
Moundsville420241972
Smoot320231980
Ghent320241978
Pt Pleasant320231973
Fayetteville319961980
Sutton320231976
Clear Creek220241988
Spencer220211986
Clendenin220241979
Nicut220221986
Paradise220211966
Denmar219891980
Slate220241980
Berryburg219961975
Albright219741966
Mt Storm219751966
Sleepy Creek219861966
Bismark220221976

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.