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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Utah has surged: up 942% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+942%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Utah: up 942% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Utah is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.77–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.77–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Utah is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.77–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.662.6
20271.60.692.6
20281.70.712.6
20291.70.742.6
20301.70.772.7

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moab5120251986
Aneth3220251986
Hatch3020251994
Jensen1120251999
Jericho Junction920252006
Castleton719851985
Goose Creek Mtn.520252004
Book Ridge420252003
Main Canyon420251988
Oak City320231981
Gooseberry320252014
Vernal320122003
Monticello320232023
Salt Springs220251993
E. Bear Lake220251996
Hanksville220181995
Hill Creek219941994
Bicknell220251997
Newcastle220251997
Hardware Ranch220232015
Beryl220241991
Cane Spr Des219931993
Wellington 3120252016
Lost Cr. Res120131995
Altonah119711971

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.