BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Utah has surged: up 824% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+824%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Utah: up 824% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Utah is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.69–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Utah is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.69–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.592.4
20261.50.612.5
20271.60.642.5
20281.60.662.5
20291.60.692.5

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Aneth3920241986
Moab3720241986
Hatch1920241994
Jensen1420241999
Castleton719851985
Main Canyon720241988
Book Ridge620242003
Lynn620231982
Gooseberry420242014
Jericho Junction420242006
Newcastle420221997
Oak City320231981
Dragerton320221986
Goose Creek Mtn.320232004
Vernal320122003
Monticello320232023
Salt Springs220221993
Goshen220241968
Hanksville220181995
Woodruff220222013
Hill Creek219941994
Hardware Ranch220232015
Beryl220241991
Cane Spr Des219931993
Wellington 3120242016

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.